Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies

This study investigates the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for sovereign debt in the G-7 and E-7 economies and explores the notion of sovereign bonds as a safe haven. Using a set of panel regression and dynamic connectedness TVP-VAR approaches, our results reveal that the impact of COVID-19 global case numbers on sovereign bonds has been contingent on the level of the country's financial and economic development. More precisely, our findings suggest that G-7 countries, where economic development is typically higher, have seen a negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yield: sovereign 10-year bond yields declined as the number of COVID-19 global confirmed cases increased in G-7 countries. However, in E-7 countries, where economic growth and development are typically lower, sovereign bond yields responded positively to the initial increase in COVID-19 global confirmed case numbers, but this positive effect is not statistically significant. We also find that the G-7 and E-7 economies have a strong time-varying connectedness in relation to their bond markets and this effect is more pronounced in G-7 economies. Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility is likely to be the strongest predictor of total connectedness. Concomitantly, we shed new light on the predictive power of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker on the interdependence of these sovereign bond markets. Overall, this paper highlights the heterogeneous effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yields in G-7 and E-7 countries and the notion that the developed economies, with their developed sovereign bond markets, are still seen as a safe haven during times of crisis. © 2023 The Authors

Information transmission among energy markets, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins under pandemic conditions

This paper investigates the directional causal relationship and information transmission among the returns of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, major cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins by drawing on daily data from July 2019 to July 2020. Applying effective transfer entropy, a non-parametric statistic, the results show that the direction of the causal relationship and the nature of information spillovers changed after the COVID-19 pandemic. More precisely, our findings reveal that WTI and Brent are leading the prices of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Conversely, Bitcoin futures and stablecoins (TrueUSD and USD Coin) are leading WTI and Brent prices. In addition, the stablecoin Tether became a leader against Brent prices after the pandemic, although it is still following WTI prices. Moreover, Ethereum and USD coin preserved their position as leaders against Brent prices. Interestingly, our results also reveal that Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple preserved their position as leaders of WTI prices. The change in the nature of directional causality and the spillover effect after the COVID-19 crisis provide valuable information for practitioners, investors, and policymakers on how the ongoing pandemic influences the connection and network correlation among the energy, cryptocurrency, and stablecoin markets. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.

Crude oil, crypto-assets and dependence: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose This paper aims to empirically investigate the extent to which interdependence in markets may be driven by COVID-19 effects. Design/methodology/approach The current global COVID-19 pandemic is adversely affecting the oil market (West Texas Intermediate) and crypto-assets markets. Findings The authors find that the dependence structure changes significantly after the global pandemic, providing valuable information on how the COVID-19 crisis affects interdependencies. The results also prove that the performance of digital gold seems to be better compared to stablecoin. Originality/value The authors fit copulas to pairs of before and after returns, analyze the observed changes in the dependence structure and discuss asymmetries on propagation of crisis. The authors also use the findings to construct portfolios possessing desirable expected behavior.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Renewable Energy and Commodity Markets

The aim of this chapter is to investigate the reaction of renewable energy and commodity markets to the adverse shocks of Covid-19 pandemic. To this purpose, we use time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach during the period from 02 January 2020 to 17 April 2020, while distinguishing between two sub-periods: before and after the announcement of the pandemic. The results show that the returns of both European renewable energy index and major precious metals (Gold, Silver, and Platinum) have increased after the announcement of the pandemic. However, except Soybean, the agriculture commodities (Corn and Wheat) did not respond to Covid-19 shocks during the same period. Moreover, our findings reveal that the renewable energy is the most volatile market, yet the agriculture industry is the least volatile. These results support the safe haven capability of Gold and suggest the hedging ability of some precious metals and agriculture commodities in periods of the pandemic. However, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic on renewable energy and commodity markets are expected to persist in the long term. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.